In re: So you gonna be getting an HD-DVD? Not likely soon.

This week the first of two high definition formats was released, this week being the lower cost, lower storage capacity HD-DVD. The format is backed by Toshiba and is similar to DVDs in technology, however it will not be the only format (as DVD was) and it is likely that a format war will happen in the Betamax v. VHS of the 80s. Bluray is the opposing format and it is likely to be more expensive both for discs and players. One way to get the players of many households is going to be through the Playstation 3 (although its launch is delayed) as the game player will subsidize part of the cost with future game/movie sales, as is the norm in the video game market.
So really the question is how long before the shelves no longer have DVDs and instead have these new formats? Well it seems like it will be a while, as the format will only really appeal to people who have the HD hardware to make it worthwhile (those with the large plasmas). For the rest of us we won’t realize any gain really (DVDs already max out the resolution on standard TVs) so we won’t likely want to shell out $500 bucks for the HD-DVD and the selection of THREE movies that are currently available (Last Samurai, Phantom of the Opera and Million Dollar Baby)
DVDs did explode and do better in terms of sale then VHS however, so it is clear that people will pay for better formats, however in the case of DVDs there were other changes aside from the visual and audio improvement, including the inclusion of extra features, widescreen and also the change of pricing (no longer the rental pricing model).

See:
First look at HD-DVD at PCWorld
Review of the Last Samurai HD-DVD (probably a little too indepth for most of you)

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